...macroblog shows some movement in expectations for the Fed funds rate at the May meeting. After the (almost) certain increase to 4.75% in March the market is backing of a near certain rise to 5.00% in May.
I think it would be useful to have an ordered ranking of terms like "certain," "almost certain," "near certain," and the like. Is "almost certain" a greater degree of certainty than "near certain"? The ordering in the phrase above would suggest so given that the level of a May increase is dependent on the March increase and therefore the expectation of a May increase should be somewhat subject to the imperfect certainty of the March increase. Then again, perhaps there is an inverse certainty curve? Does this foreshadow a certainty recession? Is our examination of certainty and the development of certainty expectations really a certainty derivative?
I'll tell you what is certain: I have too much time or too much chocolate on my hands. Certainly one of the two.